MdSm 601 Introduction
to Modeling & Simulation
Forecasting
First, a word on
terminology:
·
A
“prediction” is a statement about the occurrence of future events. It may include a measure of the likelihood of
the event occurring.
·
A
“forecast” is a statement about the expected magnitude of some future
variable. It is possible for a
prediction to be correct, but the forecast value of the magnitude of the
occurrence to be wrong.
·
A
“projection” is a
prediction based on changes in the parameters of the model—it asks the
question, “What would happen if…..”
·
But
there is no common agreement on these distinctions. See, for example, Wikipedia’s discussion of “forecast.”
There are an indeterminate number of forecasting
tools. In this lesson, we will explore
ways of generating forecasts using simple spreadsheet analysis (any of these
tools can—and have—been developed in much greater detail using multiple
equation models):
·
Land Use
Forecasting
·
Population
Forecasting
·
Transportation
Estimation
© 2013 A.J.Filipovitch
Revised 6 January 2013