The employment anticipation method is a marginal cost approach,
like the comparable cities method. Unlike the comparable cities
approach, it is based on employment rather than population, and
is appropriate for commercial and industrial development projects.
In form, it is the simplest of the three models, although they
are all essentially the same in structure. The employment anticipation
model requires a simple statement of current city expenses (Figure
12). It does not require a separate accounting of capital and
operating expenses. It also requires a fairly simple project description
(Figure 13), specifying only the type of project (industrial or
commercial), the number of employees, and the condition of the
city (growing or declining). The final table of inputs requires
a simple estimate of anticipated revenues from the project (Figure
14). The categories of revenue are different from those for residential
projects, since commercial and industrial projects generate their
flow of revenue differently. Since commercial and industrial projects
are usually a single coherent development, revenues can usually
be estimated by a simple extrapolation from current charges and
taxes.
CURRENT CITY EXPENDITURES GENERAL GOVERNMENT ...... PUBLIC SAFETY ...... PUBLIC WORKS ...... HEALTH & WELFARE ...... RECREATION ...... STATUTORY ...... DEBT SERVICE ...... CITY POPULATION ...... Figure 12 * * * PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS TYPE OF PROJECT ...... (1 IF INDUSTRAL) (3 IF COMMERCAL) NUMBER EMPLOYEES ...... CONDITION OF CITY ...... (0 IF GROWING) (1 IF DECLINING) Figure 13 * * * ANTICIPATED REVENUES TAXES PROPERTY ...... UTILITY ...... OTHER ...... SUBTOTAL xxxx CHARGES SANITATION ...... WTR & SWR ...... OTHER ...... SUBTOTAL xxxx TRANSFERS CDBG ...... OTHER ...... SUBTOTAL xxxx TOTAL NEW REVENUES xxxx Figure 14
There are only four tables of multipliers for the employment anticipation
method: two for commercial and two for industrial developments.
Of the two for each type of project, one is for growing cities
and one is for declining cities. The tables are based on a multivariate
analysis of the marginal-cost relationship between number of employees
and change in local expenditures, as published in Burchell &
Listokin (1978). The tables indicate the percentage increase in
expenses by category for each additional employee attracted to
cities in the various size-groups. Since the structure of this
family of tables is so simple, it is possible to have the spreadsheet
select the appropriate information from the tables and enter it
directly into the Project Impacts worksheet (Figure 15). The project
impact worksheet calculates the increase in total costs due to
the proposed development. It does this by multiplying number of
employees by the appropriate per-employee multiplier, to arrive
at the multiplier for the entire project. The current budget is
then multiplied by the project multiplier to arrive at the projected
costs. The worksheet then tallies the total costs, compares it
to the anticipated revenues, and arrives at the net impact.
PROJECT IMPACTS GENERAL GOVERNMENT xxxxx PUBLIC SAFETY xxxxx PUBLIC WORKS xxxxx HEALTH & WELFARE xxxxx RECREATION xxxxx STATUTORY xxxxx DEBT SERVICE xxxxx TOTAL COSTS xxxxx TOTAL REVENUES xxxxx NET IMPACT xxxxx Figure 15