URBS 502—Forecasting Assignment

Population Forecasting

Use the following information to answer the questions below:

                   Blue Earth County, MN--1980

          CURRENT  MALE   MALE   CURRNT FEMALE FEMALE  BIRTHRT

           MALE   SURVIV MIGRATN FEMALE SURVIV MIGRATN PER1OOO

COHORT      POP    RATE   RATE    POP    RATE   RATE   FEMALES

----------------------------------------------------------------

75+        958    .523    .024    1811   .672   .093

70-74      610    .766   -.010     873   .876  -.010

65-69      943    .831   -.013     943   .916  -.011

60-64      830    .882   -.010    1145   .945  -.009

55-59     1065    .925    .010    1155   .963   .008

50-54     1071    .952   -.018    1128   .975  -.019

45-49     1047    .969   -.018    1051   .983  -.019

40-44      920    .983   -.097    1066   .989  -.061   18.2

35-39     1371    .989   -.109    1193   .993  -.070   18.2

30-34     1779    .993   -.402    1685   .996  -.465   69.4

25-29     2581    .993   -.115    2258   .997  -.304  140.4

20-24     3958    .992    .250    4211   .997   .298   72.4

15-19     2985    .992    .131    3226   .997   .201   30.1

10-14     1814    .995   -.034    1696   .998  -.051

5-9       1538    .998   -.118    1532   .999  -.083

0-4       2000    .998   -.038    1871   .998  -.012

M/F RATIO = 0.51

What do you project to be the population of Blue Earth County in the year 2000?

Blue Earth County population figures are heavily influenced by Mankato State University. Suppose the University were absent, and the 1980 data were adjusted to reflect the rates in surrounding rural counties:

          CURRENT  MALE   MALE   CURRNT FEMALE FEMALE  BIRTHRT

           MALE   SURVIV MIGRATN FEMALE SURVIV MIGRATN PER1OOO

COHORT      POP    RATE   RATE    POP    RATE   RATE   FEMALES

----------------------------------------------------------------

40-44                                                  21.3

35-39                                                  21.3

30-34                    -.207                 -.144   81.6

25-29                     .020                 -.103  172.3

20-24     2465           -.037    2393         -.052  170.6

15-19     2301           -.105    2179         -.065   36.9

Now how would you project the population of blue Earth County for the year 2000?

Suppose the University remained, but the fertility rate came more in line with neighboring communities (i.e., the college population showed the same childbearing patterns as others in the County). What effect would this change in fertility have on the population of Blue Earth County by the year 2000?

Suppose the Governor helped the city attract a major manufacturing plant, one that would hire 2500 new employees. Assume that unemployment is low enough that most of the new jobs will attract migrants to the area. Most of them will be 20-24 year-old males (40%) and females (20%). 20% will be 25-29 year-old males, 10% females age 25-29; 8% will be 30-34 year-old males, 2% females age 30-34. The average household will bring 0.7 spouses (adults of the same age cohort, opposite sex), 1.0 children age 0-4, 0.5 children age 5-9, and 0.25 children age 10-14. What effect will this single plant have on the population of Blue Earth County by the year 2000, assuming the newcomers follow the same fertility and migration patterns once they arrive?

Suppose medical science manages to extend life expectancy, changing the survival rate for the oldest cohort to 0.66 for men and 0.77 for women. What effect will this have on the population of Blue Earth County by the year 2000?

Applied Gravity Model

1. Below is a table of four cities in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Use a spatial distribution model to calculate the size (in people) of each city based just on their mutual attraction.

                                      Distance              1980

                       Area   Mpl.   C.R.   Mtk.   Bvl.  Population

        Minneapolis    55.1    5       14      9       19      370,951

        Coon Rapids    23.5    14      2       25      37      35,826

        Minnetonka     27.4    9       25      2       24      38,683

        Burnsville     24.3    19      37      24      2       35,674

2. Suppose you are a planner for the metropolitan health services board. Bloomington has asked for permission to build a 250-bed hospital, although your office estimates that there is a demand for only 100 beds. Using the information below, for hospitals in each of the cities estimate the vacancies that would be caused by the new hospital.

               Current                Distance

               # Beds  Edina  Minneapolis  St. Paul  Bloomington

        Edina    405       2        9            17          7

        Mpls.  7054       9        5             9         10

        StPaul  2764      17        9            .5         16

        Blmng      0      7       10            16          4

3. Suppose you are working for the Metropolitan Transit Commission, and the southwest suburbs are arguing for a bus system which would link them to each other (rather than going through Minneapolis). Based on population size, how much traffic would you predict between the suburbs?

                                      Distance

                       Size           Mpls.   Egan    Shak.   Eden Pr.

        Minneapolis    370,951 5.0     12.5    17.5    11.5

        Eagan           20,700 12.5    2.0     17.5    12.5

        Shakopee         9,941 17.5    17.5    2.0      7.0

        Eden Prairie    16,263 11.5    12.5    7.0     3.0

4. Suppose you are a commercial land developer, looking for a likely site for a retail shopping mall in the Twin Cities area. The major competition will be from the Nicollet Mall (in downtown Minneapolis), Southdale (in Edina), and Brookdale (in Brooklyn Center). You have two possible sites--one in Wayzata and one on the edge of downtown Minneapolis. The following table provides distances from all locations in minutes, rather than miles. The locations are measured by the floor-area of retail space (in 1,000 square feet); the impacts are the total population in the various areas (representing potential customers). Which potential location is preferable?

                                      Distance

               Size    N.M.    Sdl.   Bdl.  Wzta.  Mpls.      Impact

Nicollet Mall 10,000     10    20      15      30      10      370,951

Southdale         450    20    10      25      35      20      170,835

Brookdale         450    15    25      25      30      15      156,109

Alt.:  Wayzata    500    30    35      30      15      30      70,298

Alt.:  Mpls.      500    10    20      15      30      10      370,951

5. Suppose you are a developer who is evaluating several sites for housing. Assume that the price of land and construction are identical among all sites (in other words, location is the only variable that is of interest here). Assume, further, that homebuyers will be employed either in Minneapolis or St. Paul, and that employment for each city is focused on the downtown. Minneapolis employs 200,440 people, and St. Paul employs 136,045. You have four possible sites: Lakeville (45 mins. south of both cities), Hamel (25 mins. from Minneapolis, 40 mins. from St. Paul), Lino Lakes (40 mins. north of both cities), and Lake Elmo (25 mins. from St. Paul, 40 mins. from Minneapolis).

Which location will give you the most potential homebuyers?

Land Use Forecasting

For the following questions, use the hypothetical community data provided in the landuse2 template.

1) Which is more efficient for conserving undeveloped land—increasing average residential densities by 1 unit/acre (for each of the subcategories), or decreasing the “gross adjustment factor” (for all categories of land use) by 5%?

2) Suppose the population growth estimates were off by 5%. How “overzoned” would the community be compared to its ideal area for a population of that size (assume that public facilities would all be 5% less if the population were 5% less)?

3) Suppose the energy crisis results in employers finding ways to use less space per worker, to offset their increased energy costs. Suppose employment land uses decreased their “square feet per employee” by 25%. What effect would that have on the demand for growth in urban land?

MSU