City Projects
The Uses of
History
Based on NEUSTADT, R.E. & E.R. MAY. (1986) Thinking in
Time. NY: Free Press.
In analyzing issues to develop policy, it is important to know the past. It is
not because the past determines the future; it does not. There is a story told
about a person who slipped from the top of the Empire State
Building and was heard to
remark as he passed the 50th floor, "Well, so far so good!" Nor is it because, out of a loose jumble of names and dates, one
can surely find something to justify any position. The other side
also knows that trick. Rather, the use of history in designing policy is first
to understand what is going on in the present, and then to search in
time for as many occasions as possible when the same dynamic was occurring and
learning from the way those events played out. The past, in this use, is
prologue.
Neustadt & May suggest 6 steps for
"thinking in time":
- Focus on the present
situation, concerns, and/or objectives (rather than jumping to a
solution)—ask what is
- known?
- unknown?
- presumed?
- Identify analogues
from other times, but block misleading analogies by listing
- similarities
- differences
with the present situation.
- Define your objective.
What new situation should replace the one at hand? There are several ways
to do this:
- Goldberg's Rule
(What's the story?)
- Time lines
- Journalist's
Questions (Who? What? When? Where? Why? How?)
- Array the options,
based on past experience. This raises the issue of feasibility.
- Test presumptions.
Given the lessons of history, what expected causes/effects make certain
options preferable? Two ways to test them:
- Bets & Odds
(What are the odds? How much would you bet on this option?)
- Alexander's
question (What new information would change your estimation? When
would you need this information? Why would it change your estimation?)
- Placement--How does a present
choice of this policy fit into its historical context? Articulate the
cultural stereotypes (who are the relevant people and organizations, and
what are their considerations?) Two ways to do this:
- Time-line of events
(public history) and details (individual history).
- Notice patterns.
Finally, Neustadt & May offer suggestions for
identifying sources of local history:
- Old hands
- Issue histories
- Personal biographies
- Organizational histories
- Reporters/broadcasters
- In-house historians
Assignment: Choose a current issue (e.g., congestion
around River Hills Mall, vacancy of Mankato
Place or Madison East, regional recreation
planning, absence of affordable housing…..) and follow the six steps to develop
a proposal for resolving the issue. For
this project, it is more important to practice the six steps than to consider
multiple cases (comparing past to present guarantees two cases) or multiple
issues.
Last Updated 1/10/04 by Tony
Filipovitch